The Nobel laureate who changed how I make decisions

3-minute read on better decisions

I almost made a $50,000 mistake last month.

My gut told me to invest in a "can't miss" opportunity. Every instinct screamed yes. But then I remembered something Daniel Kahneman said in an interview that stopped me cold.

Here's what's inside today:

  • Why your intuition is sabotaging your decisions

  • AI models now outperforming doctors

  • The science of learning faster

  • A simple framework that changed how I think

Let's dive in.

๐Ÿ“Š Worth Your Attention

๐Ÿค– OpenAI and Oracle Announce Stargate Partnership OpenAI just partnered with Oracle to massively expand AI infrastructure. The takeaway: we're hitting computational limits faster than expected. Current AI capabilities are about to look prehistoric compared to what's coming. Watch for major breakthroughs in the next 18 months.

๐Ÿฅ AI Outperforms Doctors on Medical Licensing Exams A new evidence-based AI system didn't just pass the USMLE - it scored better than most human doctors. We're watching the beginning of AI-assisted medicine in real time. Your next diagnosis might come with an AI second opinion that's statistically more accurate than your doctor's. Full research here

๐Ÿง  The Science of Accelerated Learning Stop highlighting textbooks. This guide breaks down what actually works for learning and retention. The techniques are counterintuitive but backed by decades of research. Personal favorite: the spacing effect explanation will change how you approach any new skill. Essential reading

๐Ÿ’ค Your Tired Brain Makes Expensive Mistakes Research confirms what we ignore: one night of bad sleep drops decision quality by 50%. The worst part? Sleep-deprived people can't tell their judgment is compromised. They feel totally normal while making terrible choices. Time to start tracking sleep before big decisions.

๐Ÿ’ก The Main Event

The Slow Decision Revolution

Daniel Kahneman spent decades studying how we make terrible decisions. In a 2019 interview with Shane Parrish, he revealed something that changed how I approach every major choice.

Here's the problem: We trust our gut way too much.

Kahneman discovered that our quick intuitions are often wrong. Not sometimes - often. The solution isn't what you'd expect.

The Framework That Changes Everything

Instead of trusting your first instinct, Kahneman suggests breaking decisions into pieces. Here's exactly how:

  1. Delay Your Intuition List every factor in your decision separately. Don't let yourself form an opinion until you've evaluated each piece individually. Only then combine them.

  2. Remove the Barriers Stop asking "How can I motivate myself?" Start asking "What's preventing this from happening?" Remove obstacles instead of adding pressure.

  3. Use the Pre-Mortem Before any big decision, imagine it failed spectacularly. Now work backward - what caused the failure? This surfaces hidden risks your optimistic brain ignores.

Why This Actually Works

I tested this on a recent business decision. My gut said "obvious yes." But when I broke it down:

  • Financial projections: Strong

  • Time commitment: Massive

  • Opportunity cost: Huge

  • Alignment with goals: Weak

The pieces told a different story than my intuition.

The Decision Journal Hack

Here's Kahneman's secret weapon: Write down every major decision with your reasoning and confidence level. Review it six months later.

You'll spot patterns in your mistakes that are invisible in the moment.

Most people think good judgment comes from experience. Kahneman proved it comes from structured thinking. Your intuition isn't your friend - it's a shortcut your brain takes to save energy.

Want better outcomes? Slow down. Break it apart. Question everything.

That $50,000 "opportunity" I mentioned? After using Kahneman's framework, I passed. Three months later, the company folded.

Sometimes the best decision is the one that feels wrong.

๐Ÿš€ Before You Go

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Marcel